Thursday, 3 March 2011

Possible Final 8 Seedings: A First Look

With 16 teams still remaining in the hunt for the 8 spots available at the Nationals, it is reasonable to begin to think at how the seeding and first-round matchups at the Final Eight might look.  Thus, let's take a look at some possible seedings scenarios for the tournament which, after a three year absence, returns to Halifax, beginning next Friday afternoon.

If Carleton wins OUA semi-final on Friday over Laurier,
#1 Carleton
#2 Canada West winner
#3 AUS winner
#4 Canada West runner-up
#5 AUS runner-up
#6 Wild card (Canada West third place - unless Alberta wins third place game)
#7 OUA runner-up
#8 Quebec

would set up the following first round matchups:
Carleton vs. Quebec winner
Canada West vs. OUA runner-up
AUS winner vs. Wild Card (if it is CW third place)
Canada West runner-up vs. AUS runner-up

Carleton/Quebec vs. CW runner-up/AUS runner-up
Canada West champ /OUA runner-up vs. AUS winner/CW third place

If Carleton loses OUA semi-final,
#1 Canada West winner
#2 Carleton (Wild Card)
#3 AUS winner
#4 Canada West runner-up
#5 AUS finalist
#6 OUA Champion
#7 Quebec
#8 OUA Third-place

In other words, if Carleton loses Friday to Laurier, they would not get an automatic bid and would still be the wild card and likely seeded #2.  This scenario would result in 3 teams from the OUA, 2 teams from Canada West, 1 Quebec and 2 AUS.

If Carleton wins on Friday, the wild card should come from Canada West if either Saskatchewan, Trinity Western or UBC win the third place game.  If Alberta wins the third place game, expect Canada West to not get the wild card berth and then the wild card would be up in the air for debate.  This would be the most interesting scenario with possibilities including a third AUS team assuming Top 3 of CBU, Dal and X make the AUS semi-finals or Lakehead if they are defeated tomorrow night.  Even then, the fourth-place finisher in the CW Final Four may have a case although with 2 losses at the most important point of the season it would be a difficult case.  Thoughts are welcomed.


Adam Connolly said...

The wildcard situation has been the debate for the past week or so.. If Carleton lose its theirs obviously and if UBC/Sask/TWU win the 3rd place game its theirs.. An Alberta win this weekend will make things very interesting..

I'm not convinced the AUS will have the 3rd seed if someone other then CBU wins the tournament.
Other then that everything looks pretty straight forward

Anonymous said...

It is so hard to judge Western Canada teams as they don't play other conferences. Last year Nationals showed that they play at a very high level.

Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic schools all play each other so it is easier to guage their merits.

For what its worth Lakehead lost to StFX and Dal in preseason, so I don't think they would deserve a wildcard entry.

It will come down to how the teams preform in the playoffs,for example if Trinty Western loses by a lot and StFx loses by 1, I think that should be taken into consideration.

Wayne Thomas said...

I would concur with Mark. The 3rd Canada West team, either TWU or Sask. needs to win the 3rd place game. It is the choice of the other conferences not to play this game, so it is the disadvantage for Canada West, but their decision.
I would pick the 3rd Ontario team. Surely, the AUS does not get 3 of 8, and Quebec doesn't have 2 strong teams .
As a Canada West fan, I will be at War memorial in vancouver, cheering for either the Huskies or Spartans to win and get 3 CW teams to Nationals.