Sunday, 6 March 2011

New Ranking Speculation

Last night's results should create some churn in the CIS Final 8 seedings including in my opinion UBC taking over the #1 ranking.  Key point in seeding the Final 8 in my opinion:  if the weekly CIS coaches Top 10 is to valued at all during the season, it must be used as a reference point for the seedings.  One can debate the merits of how that Top 10 is voted on with conditions and other elements, however if the Top 10 is to have any relevance, it must strongly be considered in the seedings.  That said, here is last week's Top 10.

March 1, 2011

1. Carleton
2. UBC
3. Saskatchewan
4. Trinity Western
5. Cape Breton
6. Lakehead
7. StFX
8. Dalhousie
9. Concordia
10. Windsor

In my view, Carleton's loss and UBC championship win means the Thunderbirds go #1 with Carleton at #2.  Saskatchewan stays at #3, losing only to UBC on their home court.  Trinity Western loses a two point game to Saskatchewan (ranked ahead of them) and then wins the third place game against a team that defeated UBC earlier in the year.  Lakehead defeats #1 so the T-Wolves should move up to #4.  Now here's where the crux of the discussion lies - if Trinity Western is the wild card - which by this argument says they should be - higher ranked in the coaches poll last week and for much of the season and Cape Breton lost to an unranked, 7-15 team in the most important game of the year - then only dropping the Spartans to #5 is reasonable.  If Dalhousie wins today, the Tigers should move up 2 positions to #6 (last week's #7 X, who Dal beat 3 times including last night) is out.  Then Concordia gets #7 and Acadia #8. 

These scenarios set up these seedings and first round matchups:

#1 UBC
#2 Carleton
#3 Saskatchewan
#4 Lakehead
#5 Trinity Western
#6 Dalhousie
#7 Concordia
#8 Acadia

setting up the following first-round matchups:

UBC vs. Acadia  winner then plays winner of Lakehead vs. Trinity Western
Carleton vs. Concordia winner then plays winner of Saskatchewan vs. Dalhousie

Four very good, regionally-seperated first round games with Ontario and AUS teams on opposite sides of the draw.

Let the debate begin !

Official announcement should come out sometime between dinner and midnight tonight. 


Michael said...

Tournament Predictions:
1)UBC over 8) Acadia (Blowout)
4)Lakehead over 5) Trinity Western (Close)

2)Carleton over 7)Concordia (Blowout)
6)Dalhousie over 3) Saskatchewan (Really Close)

Michael said...

1) UBC v 8) Acadia
2)Carleton v 7) Concordia
3)Sakatchewan v 6)Dalhousie
4)Lakehead v 5)Trinity West

1)UBC (Sorry, Acadia, but UBC is too
4)Lakehead (Coming off biggest upset/win in school history, momentum at all time high)

Ben said...

Some credit has to be given to CBU as the possible wild card. When regular season stats are taken into account, as well as the definite bias that exists in the rank voting, I wouldn't say Trinity Western is a lock.

Anonymous said...

Too bad Laurier won't be going.
They are definitely better than Concordia or Acadia.
If the Hawks play the way they did Friday against Carleton all season long they would have finished first in the OUA West.
Inconsistency plagued Laurier...great at times, other times shockingly poor.
If Cape Breton gets the WC, I say Trinity got screwed.
They blew a game against a team that's not even in the TOP 20!
Trinity lost to a top 3 team (and national champ)
CBU aren't nearly as good as their record indicates and that loss proves it.
Why should they and the AUS benefit because of their clusterf***?

Anonymous said...

Seeding the tournament (which includes using the last Top 10 poll as the starting point of creating a "final top ten" should not be confused with selection the at large berth. Selection of the WC is done first using the nine criteria. Then the seeding is done. Different exercises.

Anonymous said...

How can you say Laurier is better than Concordia when the stingers beat them TWICE in a span of 7 days during the preseason...

Anonymous said...

I think the conference winners should automatically get the top seeds. A winner is a winner. Acadia in 8 and the wildcard in 7. If Cape doesn't get in, I will cheer as will most of Canada.

Anonymous said...

How about this bracket:

#1 UBC Thunderbirds
#8 Acadia Axemen

#2 Carleton Ravens
#7 Concordia Stingers

#3 Saskatchewan Huskies
#6 Lakehead Thunderwolves

#4 Dalhousie Tigers
#5 Trinity Western Spartans

Anonymous said...

Capers get the wild card, just in. Ranked 6th

Adam Connolly said...

Lakehead has to be higher then 6 after winning the OUA..

UBC vs Acadia
Carleton vs TWU
Sask vs Concordia
Lakehead vs Dal

Concordia ranked over TWU to avoid the CW vs CW first round matchup

Anonymous said...

Nice try Caper fans too emotional just like your team see you next year

Anonymous said...

We would have won anyway